LOCAL WEATHER -- FRIDAY, MAY 29, 2015

Discussion:

An extensive line of thunderstorms swept across all of south Texas last night into this morning bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to most of the area. This was not forecast well by models...or me, for that matter. The airmass over south Texas has been worked over from the MCS and today should be a sunny and pleasant day with no rain expected. The shortwave disturbance that aided in the formation of the large MCS is moving northeast away from the area. The general upper level trough, within which the shortwave is embedded, is expected to move east through the weekend, but then a piece of the trough is expected to drop south across the lower Mississippi Valley and pinch off into a cutoff upper low. More on that shortly. For Saturday, a frontal boundary will slowly sink into south-central Texas. By then, the airmass will have had time to recover from this morning's storms and we should be moist and unstable once again. Another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms is expected with the front with local flash flooding likely later Saturday into Sunday. Drier and more stable air is expected behind the front. Now, back to the cutoff upper low. It is expected to meander around southwest Louisiana/southeast Texas for a good part of next week. We will be on the western side of the upper low, with northerly flow aloft. More than likely we will remain rain-free and experience fair weather for most of next week. Towards the end of the week, yet another trough will be in place across the western U.S., and it will be this feature that will eventually push the cutoff low east and northeast. The trough will also bring a renewed chance for rain.

For the period June 3-7, CPC is forecasting a 40% probability of below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
For the period June 5-11, CPC is forecasting a 40% probability of below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

Seeding operations are suspended until further notice.
So far in 2015, there have been three days of seeding operations: one in April and two in May.

Aviation:

VFR all areas through late tonight, when MVFR ceilings are expected to develop around 1200 to 1500 feet. Slight chance for IFR ceilings along the Balcones Escarpment before dawn Saturday.

Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. S & SW winds 10-15 mph.

Tonight: A few clouds in the evening then becoming cloudy overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 80s. E winds 5-10 mph.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. E & NE winds 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 80s. NE winds 5 mph.