LOCAL WEATHER -- FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2014

Discussion:

A warm and moist airmass has moved into south Texas, and scattered showers have developed across the area. Shower activity will diminish some this evening, lingering over the Hill Country into the nighttime hours. A storm system currently across the southwestern U.S. will move east today and tonight and will approach the area on Saturday. Moisture will continue to be pumped into the area and the airmass will become unstable as breaks in the cloud cover during the day allow for heating. Large scale lift will approach the area between noon and 6pm, and this is the time that severe thunderstorms will be possible. The main concerns will be for large hail and damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible, although the chance for tornadoes is relatively low. The core of the upper low will pass over the area in the evening with showers and thunderstorms moving east of the area. Drier westerly winds will move in to clear things out. Sunday will be sunny and very mild with warming westerly winds helping temperatures approach 80 degrees. Another frontal boundary moves through late Sunday cooling temperatures down to near normal levels for the first part of next week. Right now Thanksgiving Day looks nice, with sunny skies and near normal temperatures.

For the period November 27-December 1, CPC is forecasting a 33% probability of below normal temperatures and a 40% probability of below normal precipitation.

For the period November 29-December 5, CPC is forecasting near normal temperatures and a 40% probability of below normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

Depending on the coverage of cloud cover and extent of severe storms, there is a chance for seeding operations on Saturday.
**As of October 1st, the target area shrinks due to the end of the yearly contract with the EAA (Uvalde, Medina, Bandera, Bexar counties) and the begin of the peanut harvest. The target area is now confined to Bee, McMullen and Karnes counties and Atascosa County south of TX 97. This will remain the case until the end of the peanut harvest, which runs roughly through Christmas.**
So far in 2014 there have been 38 days of seeding operations: three in May, seven in June, ten in July, seven in August and 11 in September.

Aviation:

A mix of MVFR and VFR through this evening with scattered SHRA moving across the area. Overnight MVFR and IFR conditions will become prevalent.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, mainly this evening. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Lows in the mid 60s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms possibly severe with large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. SE winds 10-20 mph.

Saturday night: Clearing. Lows in the mid 50s. W & SW winds 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80. W & SW winds 10-15 mph.