LOCAL WEATHER -- FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2013
A complex of showers and thunderstorms that had its origins east of Lubbock yesterday afternoon is currently ongoing over the western portions of south Texas. The complex is being supported by both the Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) that developed as a result of the complex of storms and a shortwave disturbance seen on water vapor imagery southwest of the Big Bend. The complex will slowly move east this morning with weakening continuing. Any outflow boundary associated with this feature will likely be able to regenerate scattered convection with daytime heating this afternoon across the area. In addition, there should be more convective activity to our northwest later today and this may try to make a move toward our area tonight. Saturday will see unstable conditions continuing so there will be a few showers and thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the target area. More stable conditions return on Sunday with precipitation chances back to nil. Ridging will remain in place through about mid-week. After that, the western U.S. trough should begin moving into the central part of the country and rain chances should creep up once again as disturbances move through the trough and across the state. Seeding operations: Seeding operations are possible today once low cloudiness can lift and scatter out. Seeding operations are possible on Saturday. Aviation:
For the period May 29-June 2, CPC is forecasting a 33% probability of above normal temperatures and a 60% probability of below normal precipitation.
For the period May 31-June 6, CPC is forecasting near normal temperatures and a 50% probability of below normal precipitation.
So far in 2013 there have been four days of seeding operations -- one in March, one in April and two in May.
Seeding operations are possible today once low cloudiness can lift and scatter out. Seeding operations are possible on Saturday. Aviation:
Aviation:Most areas are currently reporting a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings with UVA reporting IFR in TSRA+. The northern half of the area should remain BKN-OVC through this morning with ceilings gradually rising to VFR levels, although there may be IFR visibilities in any SHRA/TSRA with the slowly decaying complex moving east. By this afternoon, most, if not all areas should be VFR with SCT-BKN Cu at and above 5000 feet. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible. Tonight MVFR ceilings redevelop around 1500 feet.
Today: Mostly cloudy this morning then becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly central and north. High 85-88 far northwest, 90-93 elsewhere. SE winds 10-15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy overnight. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly central and north. Low 72-75. SE winds 10-20 mph decreasing to 5-10 mph overnight.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High 91-94. SE winds 10-20 mph.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy overnight. Low 71-74. SE winds 10-20 mph decreasing to 5-10 mph overnight.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. High 91-94. SE winds 10-20 mph.