LOCAL WEATHER -- FRIDAY, APRIL 24, 2015

Discussion:

Overnight an MCS developed in Mexico and moved across the northwestern half of the target area bringing locally heavy rainfall. A second complex of storms affected deep south Texas but brought stabilizing effects to the southern target area. All in all, the airmass in general is worked over and deep convection is not expected during most of today. While southern areas continue to be very humid, the humidity has dropped slightly across the north, but...this will change later today as the airmass reloads. There are some breaks in the cloud cover across the area but many areas are blanketed by a deck of low cloudiness. The trend should be for a lifting of the cloud deck with some breaks this afternoon allowing for some heating. A second disturbance will approach the area this evening as well as a frontal boundary. Strong convection is anticipated to move across the area during the evening with a risk for severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Several short-range, hi-res models support this idea. The frontal boundary stalls near or just south of the southern target area on Saturday with precipitation ending. On Sunday moisture begins to surge back north while a dryline pushes east across the target area. There will be a slight chance for showers on Sunday along and ahead of the dryline. Then, either late Sunday or Monday a cold front will move through the area bringing yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. After this, expect several days of near to slightly below normal temperatures and generally clear skies as a ridge slowly builds in from the west, taking until next weekend before getting firmly established over the area.

For the period April 29-May 3, CPC is forecasting a 60% probability of below normal temperatures and a 50% probability of below normal precipitation.
For the period May 1-7, CPC is forecasting a 33% probability of below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

Seeding operations are unlikely today. There is a very slight chance for seeding operations on Saturday and Sunday.
So far in 2015, there has been one day of seeding operations in April.

Aviation:

The target area is currently experiencing MVFR and IFR decks between 700 and 2900 feet. There will be some breaks in the cloud cover today, but generally expect a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings between 2500 and 4000 feet. SHRA/TSRA and TSRA+ will occur this evening into the overnight hours.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 80s. SE winds 5-15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms possibly severe. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. E & SE winds 5-15 mph.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm SE early. Highs in the upper 80s. N & NW winds 5-10 mph.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. SE winds 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing west and central. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm central and east. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90. SE winds 5-10 mph becoming S & SW winds 10-15 mph.