LOCAL WEATHER -- TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2015

Discussion:

Mid and upper level high pressure is centered over Arkansas this morning while surface high pressure was located over the northern Gulf coast. Upslope southeast flow brought low cloudiness this morning but this is burning off/mixing out across central and eastern areas, while it continues to hold over the Rio Grande Plains and western portions of south Texas where a pocket of higher precipitable water (PW) values are located. It will be another hot one today with highs in the 90s to around 101. Heat indices will top out 100-110 degrees later this afternoon, with the highest values expected over the southern target area. Over the next few days the center of the upper high will migrate back over Texas, then continue to re-establish itself over the Four Corners/desert southwest area by Friday. As this occurs, a slug of deeper moisture will move in from the east with PW values at or above 2 inches. This, combined with slightly cooler temperatures aloft, strong heating, and a frontal boundary that will move into central/southeast Texas will allow for isolated to widely scattered convection to develop, mainly across the northern half of the target area. Amounts will generally be light with any shower or storm that develops, but brief moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible along with gusty winds. The chance for rain continues into Saturday but moisture levels will begin dropping during the day. By Sunday we will return to hot and dry with no chance for rain. High temperatures this weekend could reach/exceed 100 degrees areawide as we get into north to northeast flow aloft. Models show that the center of the upper high will remain to our west/northwest next week.

For the period August 2-6, CPC is forecasting a 50% probability of above normal temperatures and a 40% probability of below normal precipitation.
For the period August 4-10, CPC is forecasting a 50% probability of above normal temperatures and a 40% probability of below normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

Seeding operations are unlikely through Thursday.
So far in 2015, there have been 18 days of seeding operations: one in April, two in May, 13 in June and two in July.

Aviation:

The western portions of the Balcones Escarpment into the Rio Grande Plains is currently reporting MVFR ceilings while all other areas are VFR. Expect the area of MVFR ceilings to mix out and/or burn off by early afternoon with all areas VFR with FEW Cu at/above 5500 feet this afternoon and evening. Overnight MVFR and borderline IFR ceilings are expected to develop with bases down to 1000 feet.

Forecast:

Today: Decreasing cloudiness west, otherwise sunny with a few clouds. Highs in the mid 90s to around 101. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Tonight: A few clouds in the evening then increasing cloudiness overnight. Lows in the mid to upper 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the mid 90s to around 101. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Wednesday night: A few clouds in the evening then increasing cloudiness overnight. Lows in the mid to upper 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the mid 90s to around 100. SE winds 5-10 mph.