LOCAL WEATHER -- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2015

Discussion:

The upper level trough that brought rains to portions of the central and eastern target area yesterday is a little further to the east this morning. Overnight into this morning a shortwave disturbance rotating around the trough aided in a large area of convection in the Gulf just offshore. This activity is moving into southeastern Texas. The complex will likely mess up the formation of the seabreeze boundary today, but we will still become unstable this afternoon and could see a shower or storm mainly across the eastern half of the target area. Western parts of south Texas are feeling more of the subsidence on the backside of the upper trough and, at best, might see a sprinkle or two, such as what is currently occurring between Hondo and Castroville (this is likely a result of moist upslope flow into the Escarpment.) Models, particularly the GFS, are indicating yet another large complex of convection developing just offshore tonight into Wednesday morning. This will lower the amount of moisture available on Wednesday and could once again hinder seabreeze development. The upper level trough should be a bit further east by then, and convective potential will be isolated at best and confined to far eastern areas. I believe that Thursday and Friday will, for the most part, be quiet across the target area as the upper trough will be far enough east as a result of high pressure aloft trying to build in from the west. The upper level trough will start to move back to the west for the weekend but right now it appears that it will move more southwest than west and may have more of an impact on the weather south of our area. Still, can not rule out a shower or storm over the Labor Day weekend mainly across southern areas. Next week another upper level trough develops across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this feature could move west and impact our area by around Wednesday.

For the period September 6-10, CPC is forecasting a 50% probability of above normal temperatures and a 33-40% probability of below normal precipitation.
For the period September 8-14, CPC is forecasting a 50% probability of above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

Yesterday there were two brief seeding flights. During the first flight one cloud was seeded in Bee County with three AgI flares. During the second flight, one cloud was seeded in Bee County with two AgI flares. Total AgI flares used was five.
Seeding operations are possible today and Wednesday. Seeding operations are not anticipated on Thursday.
So far in 2015, there have been 28 days of seeding operations: one in April, two in May, 13 in June, three in July and nine in August.

Aviation:

Earlier morning many areas reported MVFR/IFR conditions with isolated LIFR. Most areas are VFR with a few remnant MVFR ceilings mainly across the northern target area. All areas should be VFR this afternoon with Cu bases lifting to at/above 4500 feet. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible mainly eastern areas. Overnight MVFR ceilings will redevelop mainly across northern areas with the possibility of brief IFR ceilings.

Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly eastern half. Highs in the low to mid 90s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an early evening shower or thunderstorm. Lows in the low 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the low to mid 90s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the low 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 90s. SE winds 10-15 mph.