LOCAL WEATHER -- WEDNESDAY, JULY 23, 2014

Discussion:

Upper level high pressure centered to our north and northwest is the main player in our weather. A mid to upper level low centered near New Orleans will gradually slide west, then southwest over the next few days while shearing apart by the time it reaches the lower Texas coast late Thursday/early Friday. This feature has enhanced convection along a boundary over southeastern Texas that is moving to the southwest. Although the upper high is providing subsidence (sinking air) across the area, there is enough instability and moisture such that forcing along the boundary may overcome the subsidence and generate convection over our eastern counties later today. Chances are low as will be coverage of any convection that can develop. On Thursday a slight chance for convection will be present across the southeastern target area in closer proximity to the aforementioned mid to upper level disturbance. Otherwise, expect hot and humid conditions. By the weekend, the upper high will expand over the area into the central Plains with no chances for convection and hot summer days continuing. Next week all models show the upper high getting pushed westward as a strong shortwave across southern Canada helps dig a deep trough across the eastern half of the country. This will put Texas into north/northwest flow aloft, a situation that, in the not too distant past, allowed a cold front to sink down into the area bringing much cooler temperatures and much-needed rainfall. Some models indicate another such front sometime next week.

For the period July 28-August 1, CPC is forecasting a 40% probability of above normal temperatures and a 33-40% probability of below normal precipitation.
For the period July 30-August 5, CPC is forecasting near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

There is a slight chance for seeding operations this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon. Seeding operations are unlikely on Friday.
So far in 2014 there have been 17 days of seeding operations: three in May, seven in June and seven in July.

Aviation:

VFR conditions across the area should continue for the next 24 hours with FEW-SCT Cu at/above 4500 feet. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible across eastern half of target area this afternoon.

Forecast:

Today: Sunny with a few clouds. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm eastern half of target area. Highs in the upper 90s to around 102. E & NE winds 5-10 mph.

Tonight: A few clouds. Lows in the mid to upper 70s. SE winds 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny with a few clouds. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm southeastern areas. Highs in the upper 90s to around 103. E winds 5-10 mph.

Thursday night: A few clouds. Lows in the mid to upper 70s. S winds 10-15 mph.

Friday: Sunny with a few clouds. Highs in the upper 90s to around 103. SE winds 10-15 mph.