LOCAL WEATHER -- FRIDAY, AUGUST 29, 2014

Discussion:

A moist and unstable airmass is in place across south Texas. Overnight and morning convection along the south Texas coast has stabilized those areas. Further inland, heating of the moist airmass has helped build a cumulus field across the area, some of which have grown into brief showers. With additional heating, more robust showers and even a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. An upper level trough swinging across the southern Plains may brush our area with enough lift to add to the convective potential. Once again, short-term, hi-res models are not developing a whole lot across the area. High temperatures will be a bit lower today due to the increased cloud cover and moisture. The upper level trough departs on Saturday but high pressure does not build in quickly, and with precipitable water values still expected to be in the 1.7-2.0 inch range, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Moisture begins to decrease by Sunday and upper level support diminishes as well, so only an isolated shower or two along the seabreeze will be possible. For early next week high pressure should keep us dry. A tropical wave, currently in the central Caribbean, will enter the southern Gulf early next week. Development of this feature into a cyclone is still uncertain. In any case, higher precipitable water values associated with the disturbance should begin affecting the area around the middle of next week, with rain chances returning.

For the period September 3-7, CPC is forecasting a 40-50% probability of above normal temperatures and a 33-40% probability of above normal precipitation.
For the period September 5-11, CPC is forecasting a 40-50% probability of above normal temperatures and a 33% probability of above normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

Two seeding flights took place yesterday afternoon and early evening. During the first flight, clouds were seeded in Karnes, DeWitt and McMullen counties. During the second flight, clouds were seeded in Live Oak and Atascosa counties. A total of 16 AgI flares and 2 CaCl (hygroscopic) flares were used for seeding.
Seeding operations are likely through Sunday.
So far in 2014 there have been 25 days of seeding operations: three in May, seven in June, ten in July and five in August.

Aviation:

All areas are VFR with SCT Cu above 2500 feet and BKN Cu in some areas at/above 3500 feet. Expect SCT-occasionally BKN Cu/TCu field this afternoon with a few SHRA/TSRA possible as bases rise to 5000 feet and higher. Brief MVFR conditions possible in and near SHRA/TSRA. Overnight MVFR conditions will develop along the Balcones Escarpment, and possibly the southeastern areas with BKN-OVC deck around 2000 feet.

Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. E & SE winds 10-15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy overnight. Lows in the mid 70s. E & SE winds 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy early in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. E & SE winds 10-15 mph.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy overnight. Lows in the mid 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy early in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. SE winds 10-15 mph.