LOCAL WEATHER -- THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2014

Discussion:

Moisture levels are still running above normal for this time of year with precipitable water values between 1.8 and 2 inches. There are two areas of convection ongoing across the state -- one across northwest Texas associated with the remnants of Odile, and one over southeast Texas where moisture is rich and deep. Moisture aloft from Odile will continue to move across the area while at low levels Gulf moisture will remain in place. The problem today is that there doesn't seem to be a trigger for convection, and mid-level winds are southwesterly, which normally is not good for our area in terms of rain chances. There is a shortwave disturbance that will move toward southeast Texas today but this will not have much impact on our weather. Hi-res models do not indicate much activity in the target area today but with the high moisture levels in place, I will retain a chance for convection this afternoon. A couple models show that a weakening MCS approaches the area tonight so will keep chances for rain in place. Elevated moisture levels and weak disturbances passing through aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast Friday into Saturday. I think by Sunday the airmass will have dried out enough -- and high pressure will have begun to reassert its influence on the area -- to prevent convective development. Models are still OTL (Out To Lunch) with regards to the possible frontal boundary next week, and recent model upper level output would suggest that the front may remain north of the area. The GFS model is particularly interesting for the last few days of September/first few days of October, showing both a strong cold front with intense squall line moving through, then a strong tropical system in the Gulf. Wheeeee!

For the period September 23-27, CPC is forecasting a 33% probability of above normal temperatures and a 40% probability of above normal precipitation.
For the period September 25-October 1, CPC is forecasting a 33% probability of above normal temperatures and a 40% probability of above normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

Seeding operations are possible each day through Saturday.
So far in 2014 there have been 36 days of seeding operations: three in May, seven in June, ten in July, seven in August and nine in September.

Aviation:

VFR conditions are being reported across the target area and this should continue through the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible. Cloud bases will be at/above 3500 feet. Overnight MVFR conditions are possible, especially if an MCS does move through the area, with BKN-OVC bases around 2000 feet.

Forecast:

Today: Variable cloudiness. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low to mid 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.

Friday: Variable cloudiness. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. E winds 10-15 mph.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. E winds 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. E winds 5-10 mph.