LOCAL WEATHER -- THURSDAY, APRIL 17, 2014

Discussion:

Skies are mostly cloudy across south Texas early this afternoon with moist onshore flow at the lower levels beneath a relatively strong cap, as depicted by the morning soundings at Corpus and Del Rio. There have been a few sprinkles across the area during the morning and into this afternoon and this will continue. I doubt there will be thunder as the cap is too strong and dynamics are weak, in spite of an upper level trough just to our west. The aforementioned trough and associated surface front will move across the area tonight with slight chances for sprinkles continuing. The front will stall and wash out on Friday just south of the target area. There really isn't any "cool or cold" air behind the front; in fact, temperatures tomorrow should rebound nicely into the lower 80s. Another weak upper level trough will approach the area this weekend. Moist onshore flow will continue with increasing dewponts. Skies will be mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks. It will be seasonably warm and humid, pretty much what we would expect for this time of year. There is a very slight chance for a sprinkle or two on Saturday, with a slightly higher chance on Sunday. An isolated thunderstorm is possible across the western portions of south Texas on Sunday. Ridging builds into the area for early next week with warming temperatures and increasing humidity. The dryline may be able to generate of couple of thunderstorms to our west by Wednesday of next week. At this time it is uncertain what may affect our area.

For the period April 22-26, CPC is forecasting a 40% probability of above normal temperatures and a 33-40% probability of above normal precipitation.
For the period April 24-30, CPC is forecasting near normal to a 33% probability of above normal temperatures and a 33-40% probability of above normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

It is becoming more clear that seeding operations are unlikely today. There is very slight chance for seeding operations on Saturday.
So far in 2014 there have been no seeding operations.

Aviation:

Skies are a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings, ranging from around 2200 feet up to 4500 feet. Generally BKN deck can be expected with a few peeks of sun. Ceilings should continue to be a mix, with MVFR ceilings arewide by evening. Expect ceiling heights around 1000-1500 feet, with IFR ceilings as low as 700 feet possible. A front will move through the area overnight. Only isolated light sprinkles possible.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy. A few sunny breaks possible. A few sprinkles from time to time. Highs in the low to mid 70s. E & SE winds 10-15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles, mainly in the early evening. Lows in the low 60s. E winds 10-15 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s. E & NE winds 10 mph.

Friday night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy overnight. Lows around 60. E & SE winds 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks. Slight chance of a shower. Highs in the low 80s. E & SE winds 10-15 mph.