LOCAL WEATHER -- TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2015
Isentropic upglide is in full effect across south Texas, resulting in an extensive shield of cloud cover. This will continue for the next several days as the airmass moistens up. Precipitation is not expected today but by Wednesday, as cloud bases lower, we could see some patchy drizzle and sprinkles along and north of the Balcones Escarpment. Temperatures will be warming through the next few days along with increasing humidity. An upper level trough currently along the Pacific Northwest coast will dive southeast into the Great Basin on Wednesday and remain stationary through Saturday, placing Texas in west to southwest flow aloft. Occasional disturbances will rotate through the trough and out across the central and southern Plains. Rain chances increase on Thanksgiving Day with one such disturbance, then on Friday, a second disturbance will bring a cold front into the area. The front will slowly settle south across the area bringing a more focused rain event. Pacific moisture will get entrained into this as well, bringing a risk for locally heavy rains, although areas north and northwest of the target area are at a greater risk as they will be closer to the better upper level dynamics. Much cooler air will move in behind the front for Saturday. The upper level trough finally pushes out into the central Plains on Sunday, taking the precipitation with it. Fair weather, albeit a bit on the cool side, is expected Monday of next week. Another system may begin impacting the area Tuesday/Wednesday. Seeding operations: Seeding operations are unlikely through Thursday. Aviation:
QPF guidance for this upcoming event indicates 1-3 inches of rain, higher amounts toward the north, with pockets of locally heavier amounts to 5-6 inches.
For the period November 29-December 3, CPC is forecasting a 50% probability of below normal temperatures and a 40-50% probability of below normal precipitation.
For the period December 1-7, CPC is forecasting a 40% probability of below normal temperatures and a 40% probability of above normal precipitation.
So far in 2015, there have been 38 days of seeding operations: one in April, two in May, 13 in June, three in July, nine in August, nine in September and one in October.
Seeding operations are unlikely through Thursday. Aviation:
Aviation:VFR ceilings this afternoon and early evening will gradually lower to MVFR, and then IFR overnight, especially along the Balcones Escarpment. Patchy -DZ will be possible in this area by Wednesday morning.
Today: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. SE winds 5-15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle possible overnight. Lows in the lower 60s. SE winds 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. A few showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. SE winds 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. SE winds 10-15 mph.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80. SE winds 10-20 mph.