LOCAL WEATHER -- WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2014

Discussion:

A frontal boundary is located across the central part of the target area, with cooler and slightly drier air to the north of the front. Convergence along the front is meager at best and morning soundings from Del Rio and Corpus Christi show a decent cap around 800 mb (approx. 6500 feet above sea level). Moisture availability is a bit better than yesterday but I expect nothing more than a few light sprinkles from about Pearsall-Pleasanton-Poth and points south as the front slowly sinks south. Skies will become mostly cloudy tonight with mild overnight lows. Thursday will be fair with above normal temperatures. A strong upper low will move into the Great Lakes region Thursday while a strong shortwave begins to dive southeast out of central Canada. This latter feature will help carve out a sharp eastern U.S. upper level trough through Friday while a ridge develops over the western part of the country. The shortwave will be accompanied by a cold front that will move through the area during the day Friday. Much cooler temperatures can be expected in its wake. There is a slight chance for a few light showers as the front moves through, with western parts of south Texas more favored. Friday night into Saturday morning will be quite cool with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Highs on Saturday, in spite of full sunshine, will be in the low to mid 70s. A warming and moistening trend will begin on Sunday, continuing into the first half of next week. As I mentioned yesterday, Tuesday into Wednesday could see a significant rainfall event, although the most recent model runs are showing that the heaviest rainfall could be a little further south, and the remnants of what will soon be Tropical Storm Vance in the eastern Pacific are shown to be less vigorous. Time will tell...

For the period November 3-7, CPC is forecasting a 50% probability of above normal temperatures and a 50-60% probability of above normal precipitation.
For the period November 5-11, CPC is forecasting a 40% probability of above normal temperatures and near normal to a 33% probability of above normal precipitation.

Seeding operations:

Seeding operations are unlikely through Friday.
**As of October 1st, the target area shrinks due to the end of the yearly contract with the EAA (Uvalde, Medina, Bandera, Bexar counties) and the begin of the peanut harvest. The target area is now confined to Bee, McMullen and Karnes counties and Atascosa County south of TX 97. This will remain the case until the end of the peanut harvest, which runs roughly through Christmas.**
So far in 2014 there have been 38 days of seeding operations: three in May, seven in June, ten in July, seven in August and 11 in September.

Aviation:

MVFR (mainly across western parts of the target area) and VFR conditions are being reported across the area with clouds at several different levels. Expect that generally VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening with the lowest cloud bases remaining at/above 3500 feet. Overnight VFR conditions are expected with possible MVFR decks over the northern and central target area.

Forecast:

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 80s. E & NE winds 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy overnight. Lows in the low to mid 60s. NE winds 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy early in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. NE winds 5 mph.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Lows in the low to mid 60s. NE winds 5 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy early in the morning then clearing. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. N & NE winds 10-15 mph.